Gravity Kicks In

I have long been asserting that Giuliani has zero chance of winning the GOP nomination.  I’ve been predicting that Huckabee will win, on the grounds that everyone else is, for one reason or another, unelectable within the GOP.  I’ve wavered a bit, on the grounds that it’s theoretically possible that the GOP base’s perception that Giuliani shares their hatred of Arabs and liberals trumps its beliefs on social issues, but still thought his chances were low.

New polls suggest that I might have been right at first, and that his support is bound to collapse as more people pay attention.  Huckabee remains low, around five percent, but McCain made a serious run after being pretty darn low early in the game, so he can’t be written off yet.


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