Iraq Drawdown, Iran Buildup?

Serious, highly respected scholar Barnett Rubin has more to say about a possible attack on Iran:

the report has been picked up by quite a few bloggers who usually preface my name with some honorific such as “respectable,” “highly respected,””Serious,” “well-connected,” etc. I think the point they are trying to get across is that I am not a total lunatic. I don’t like being in the position of publishing reports with inadequate evidence, but the stakes are too high, so I will risk losing those adjectives. Here’s something else:

I posted the first blog on Wednesday, August 29. On the morning of Thursday, August 30, someone who is a professional in handling information called me to recount a conversation from the previous Thursday or Friday (August 23 or 24). In this conversation, someone whose proximity to knowledge of such things is so great that I cannot identify him in any other way, told my interlocutor that President Bush would be inclined to accept suggestions for withdrawing some troops from Iraq and moving as many as possible into more secure bases, as a safeguard against reprisals in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran.

He goes on to flag a Reuel Marc Gerecht article in Newsweek that theorizes, “War may come, but not because negotiations break down. The likely trigger is an Iranian provocation.”

So, be on the lookout for Iranian provocations.

We’re still in the rumor phase, here, but note that Rubin’s source’s claim that we’d see a post-Labor Day rollout of Iran War fever seems to be plausible.

Also, note that Rubin is willing to risk something to  prevent our country from making a strategically and morally catastrophic decision.  The Congressional Democrats are unwilling to risk ineffective attack ads against them by standing up to the president’s desire to be able to wiretap anyone he chooses without any oversight.


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