The Threatening Storm?

Robert Pape’s studies suggest that the more forces occupying a region, the more suicide terrorism they produce.  This suggests that the Shia might soon resort to suicide attacks, and that any temporary gains due to stepped-up troop presence are offset by increased hatred and willingness to resort to violence.

Given this pattern, which happens all throughout the world, the escalation in Iraq was theoretically defensible as a way to achieve, as Tony Snow put it, “the conditions under which people can pursue the important business of political reconciliation and economic development.”

Now that September has arrived and there is no political reconciliation, the administration, of course, is moving the goalposts, emphasizing instead their unverifiable claims of reduced violence.

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4 Responses to “The Threatening Storm?”

  1. linda Says:

    Elvis: Did you catch my mention of the need for the Air Force to Barbara Ann on the Swampland thread? And my disclaimer that I am not an expert, but just a casual, interested observer with a lot of stored trivia. Here is a little more on the subject:
    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/9/3/212211/3016
    Conventional Bunker Busters and the Planes…Roger Fox

  2. linda Says:

    Elvis: just a heads up here.
    “Okay, so war with Iran”–Josh with links to Todd Gatlin and George Packer

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/052164.php

    side note: Bush’s nominations for Joint Chiefs

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Mullen
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Cartwright

  3. elviselvisberg Says:

    Wow, thanks for reading, linda, and for the new info. The rumors are hitting the big time. Hopefully it’s all just our fevered imaginings, but the fact that something is massively counterproductive sure doesn’t mean we’re not going to do it.

    I think I linked that George Packer thing myself on this blog, though really it doesn’t do a whole lot more than relay the Juan Cole/Barnett Rubin rumor.

    As to the diary you link, am I reading it correctly to say that an attack need not involve any carriers? That an F-15, B-2, or, for a MOAB, a C-130 from an airbase can handle the kind of attack we’ve been reading about? As I understand it, the attack being tossed about is a pretty serious amount of bombing.

  4. linda Says:

    I sure got the ground launches message from that link. We have lots of C-130s in Iraq. The Brits just moved their entire force to the Basra airport. Bush just visited the Air Base in al Anbar. We’ve got the Baghdad Airport and I think one more in N. Iraq. Afghanistan, don’t know? And Aegis Cruisers can launch ‘missiles’. They can function independently of Carriers. That’s all I can add.

    Did you hear Sen. McConnell today: We’ll be in the ME for a long time because of AQ and Iran.

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